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Dr. Christopher Rapley, Director of the British Antarctic Survey, told a seminar being held in Ny Alesund, Norway on August 20 that the IPCC was “restrained to the point of being seriously misleading” with regard to the risk posed by a melting Antarctica.

Dr. Rapley has repeatedly warned that the IPCC has seriously underestimated the impact that the melting West Antarctic Ice Sheet will have on climate change and rising sea levels, but this represents his strongest statement yet.

Here are some of Dr. Rapley’s previous statements:

February 1, 2005 - The Exeter UK Symposium: Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change [PDFs of ”Antarctic ice sheets and sea level rise” - Abstract & Presentation].

“The last IPCC report characterised Antarctica as a slumbering giant in terms of climate change. I would say that it is now an awakened giant. There is real concern.” 

As reported by Michael McCarthy of The Independent, courtesy of The Tribune.

February 19, 2006 - The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Annual Meeting in St. Louis: “West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Waking the Sleeping Giant?”

Parts of the Antarctic ice sheet that rest on bedrock below sea level have begun to discharge ice fast enough to make a significant contribution to sea level rise. Understanding the reason for this change is urgent in order to be able to predict how much ice may ultimately be discharged and over what timescale. Current computer models do not include the effect of liquid water on ice sheet sliding and flow, and so provide only conservative estimates of future behaviour. Only five years ago, Antarctica was characterised as a slumbering giant in terms of climate change. I would argue that this is now an awakened giant and we should take notice.

Press Release by the BAS

June 12, 2006 - The Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting 2006.

Recent evidence indicates that regional melting is taking place at a worrying rate, and faster than we had thought. The consequence for the future of mean sea level alone justifies the polar regions as the subject of special scientific attention.

Press Statement by Prof Chris Rapley CBE

None of the news stories reporting the current seminar, which is being held from August 20-22, provided details of the sponsoring group and the only other relevant information that I found was:

• It is being attended by 40 politicians and scientists.
• Ny Alesund is an Arctic Research Center.
• The Arctic appears to be the focus of the seminar.
• Norwegian Environment Minister Helen Bjoernoy attended, but there is no press release nor statement at the Norwegian Ministry of the Environment, and her schedule was blank.
• Kim Holmen, research Director at the Norwegian Polar Institute attended, but I was unable to find further information at their website due to the following message: We apologize, but… We are currently experiencing some technical problems with the English section of our web site. Please check back by the end of summer for a full English version of the Norwegian Polar Institute website!”
• There was a similar meeting in Ny Alesund on March 2 - 4, 2006. Here is a list of participants.

The next major scientific meeting about Antarctica is the 10th International Symposium on Antarctic Earth Science (ISAES); which meets every 4 years. It will be held at the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) August 26 through 31. They have an exceedingly dry agenda if you want to look and see what normally occurs at these meetings.

This will be followed by the 2007 West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative (WAIS) Workshop, to be held Sept. 5-8 at Algonkian Regional Park near Sterling, Virginia, U.S.A.. Here is their preliminary agenda.

For more information I recommend:

• The power of a Pole position- June 8, 2007 - An article about Dr. Rapley, his leadership of the BAS, and his warnings about the future.
• Polar Ice Sheets, Melting, and Sea Level Change [PDF] -  AAAS June 15, 2004 - A presentation that provides background information and then attempts to answer: How much and how fast might polar ice melt?
• Crystal Ball: Scientists Race to Foretell West Antarctica’s Unclear Future- News Release by Jackson School of Geosciences, of the University of Texas Austin, on June 1, 2007 - news coverage of a workshop: “West Antarctic Links to Sea-Level Estimation, which brought together approximately 30 polar ice experts from across the U.S. and U.K. at the university from March 26-28, 2007″.
• March 14 Press Release for the above event with a list of participants.
• THINNING OF WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET DEMANDS IMPROVED MONITORING TO REDUCE UNCERTAINTY OVER POTENTIAL SEA-LEVEL RISE - NASA/EO Media Alert of March 28, 2007 - Statement by the scientists at the Texas meeting in which they express their concern with the IPCC sea level rise estimates and the possible contributions of a melting antarctic.