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This is the third time in as many days that the Climate Seminar in Ny Alesund, Norway has made the headlines; and I still don’t see the sponsor named in any of the articles; but I think I have cracked this mystery. I just discovered that the Ny Alesund Seminars are frequent occurrences and appear to be referred to as a “Ny Alesund Seminar”. 

Before I delve further into the background of this prestigious seminar series I want to focus on the latest salvo by “outgoing” BAS Director Chris Rapley. I put outgoing in quotes because I believe it explains why he has become more forceful in his statements.

There are a growing body of scientists who are claiming that the IPCC was too timid with regards to their sea level rise forecast. Dr. James Hansen, of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies has become the unofficial spokesperson for this group ever since he published: “Scientific reticence and sea level rise“, May 24, 2007 in the Science Journal, Environmental Research Letters.

Abstract. I suggest that a `scientific reticence’ is inhibiting the communication of a threat of a potentially large sea level rise. Delay is dangerous because of system inertias that could create a situation with future sea level changes out of our control. I argue for calling together a panel of scientific leaders to hear evidence and issue a prompt plain-written report on current understanding of the sea level change issue.

[Body] Scientific reticence may be a consequence of the scientific method. Success in science depends on objective skepticism. Caution, if not reticence, has its merits. However, in a case such as ice sheet instability and sea level rise, there is a danger in excessive caution. We may rue reticence, if it serves to lock in future disasters.

Concern about the danger of ‘crying wolf’ is more immediate than concern about the danger of ‘fiddling while Rome burns’.

Dr. Rapley is retiring as Director of the British Antarctic Survey this month and now that he no longer has to be worried about tarnishing the reputation of the BAS he is sharing his inner thoughts. Here are some excerpts from the Reuters article: Antarctic ice thawing faster than predicted.

A thaw of Antarctic ice is outpacing predictions by the U.N. climate panel and could in the worst case drive up world sea levels by 2 meters (6 ft) by 2100, a leading expert said on Wednesday.

Chris Rapley, the outgoing head of the British Antarctic Survey, said there were worrying signs of accelerating flows of ice towards the ocean from both Antarctica and Greenland with little sign of more snow falling inland to compensate.

“The ice is moving faster both in Greenland and in the Antarctic than the glaciologists had believed would happen,” Rapley told Reuters during a climate seminar in Ny Alesund on a Norwegian Arctic island 1,200 km from the North Pole.

“I think the realistic view is that we will be nearer a meter than the 40 cm” in sea level rise by 2100, Rapl[e]y said. The U.N. climate panel in February gave a likely range of 18 to 59 cm this century, for an average around 40 cm.

Asked at the seminar what the upper limit for the rise might be at a probability of one percent or less, he said: “At this extremely unlikely level the maximum would be two meters.”

Rapley said there were worrying signs of an accelerating thaw both in West Antarctica, where much of the ice sits on rocks that are below sea level, and on the Cook and Totten glaciers on the fringe of the far bigger ice mass to the East.

“The East Antarctic ice sheet is always dismissed as the big bit which sits on rock above sea level and so is much more stable. But the radar altimeters show significant discharge going on,” he said.

That last paragraph is dynamite. Every previous report I have ever read has stated that East Antarctica will have no appreciable effect on sea level rise, now we have the first “cry” that glaciers in that area are showing signs of ”significant” discharges.

What makes West Antarctica so dangerous and unpredictable is the potential of a catastrophic collapse since it is grounded on land which is beneath sea level. East Antarctica is mostly above sea level and since it lacks this dramatic component it is has been labeled “stable”. Dr. Rapley is reminding us that saying it is stable is not the equivalent of saying it is not melting.

East Antarctica is the “motherlode” for sea level rise, with the potential to contribute an additional 65 meters according to the USGS. If any appreciable melt is occurring in that area then current estimates, including mine, of sea level rise are woefully inadequate as East Antarctica will jump from having no influence to potentially being the largest contributing factor.

I do not know if this is a hypothesis by Dr. Rapley or a statement of fact based upon information he has been privy to as Director of the BAS.

If it is a hypothesis it contradicts widely held beliefs that East Antarctica’s ice sheet is growing due to snow accumulation, and implies that East Antarctica is suffering a net loss of ice mass, just like West Antarctica.

If it is a fact then I expect we will see some scientific evidence of this in the near future.

In either case, we have a whole new ball game if he is even close to being right (or my wild conjecture here is close to being right, depending on your point of view).

Now back to his 1% chance that sea level will rise by 2 meters due to the accelerating ice thaw in West Antarctica.

Despite my claims of his new outspokenness I believe he is underestimating the extent of the melting. My reasoning is based upon the extraordinary report delivered this May about a huge Antarctic thaw: Vast Antarctic ice melt (news.com.au),  Photo in the News: Antarctic Region the Size of California Melted in ‘05 (nationalgeographic.com), and NASA Finds Vast Regions of West Antarctica Melted in Recent Past (jpl.nasa.gov); which occurred in 2005.

I have not seen any studies which indicate whether it did or did not reoccur this past summer in Antarctica (which is our Winter), but I will keep looking for more news this season.

Here is the widely distributed photo which shows the extent of the thaw.

I have been unable to find an explanation for the range of colors but my guess is that they reflect depth with yellow being the shallowest, through orange, to red being the deepest.

This is the type of thawing which has been occurring in Greenland and which took streams like this,

(photo courtesy of NASA/GISS, article: Sea Level Rise, After the Ice Melted and Today)

and turned it into this raging river.

(photo courtesy of National Geopgraphic Magazine, The Big Thaw issue, June 2007).

This meltwater then seeps under the ice and adds extra lubrication to the ice streams which accelerates their flow and discharge rates.

No one ever thought they would see a raging river on the Greenland Ice Cap and no one ever thought an area the size of California could thaw in the antarctic. When you start to see streams appear on the West Antarctic ice sheet you know the river is coming, and that the collapse will follow relatively shortly thereafter.

I predict that the early warning sign I have been looking for, which will proceed a collapse, is the permanent appearance of seasonal meltwater rivers on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

This is also why I believe West Antarctica is going to start matching Greenland for contributions to sea level rise within the next 25 to 50 years. Now add to this equation an extra 1 to 3 meters from East Antarctica and I predict that sea level can rise over 5 meters by the end of this century.

Only time will tell who is right, but as I have been pointing out, time is one thing we can not afford to waste.

In closing, I promised to explain what I discovered about the Ny Alesund Seminars which are sponsored by NySMAC: the Ny-Ålesund Science manager’s committee. Here is how one member, the prestigious Alfred Wegener Institute, describes them:

The arctic research site Ny-Ålesund is characterised by the co-existence of research activity in a wide range of disciplines, performed by several institutions from different nations. In order to enhance cooperation and coordination amongst research activities, the institutions which have frequent research activities in Ny-Ålesund, are working together in the Ny-Ålesund Science manager’s committee(NySMAC). This committee regularly convenes international scientific seminars and workshops focusing on topics related to research carried out in the Ny-Ålesund area, and publishes the news bulletin Ny-Ålesund Newsletter twice yearly.   

NySMAC has the following list of distinguished members:

• National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) - Japan
• Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) - Italy
• Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU)
• Norwegian Space Centre (NSC)
• Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/BAS - UK
• Institut Francais Polaire, Paul Emile Victor (IPEV) - France
• Stockholm University (SU) - Sweden
• Korea Polar Research Institute
• University of Groningen (UoG) - Netherlands
• Norwegian Polar Institute
• Alfred Wegener Institut (AWI) - Germany
• Norwegian Mapping Authority (NMA)
• GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ) - Germany
• University of Tromsø (UiT) - Norway
• Polar Research Institute of China - Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration (CAA)
• The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS) - Norway

NySMAC is holding a major seminar at Cambridge, UK, October 16-17, 2007; which is open to scientists involved or interested in research at Ny-Ålesund. This seminar will be hosted by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the British Antarctic Survey (BAS).

For more information I recommend:

• Research Finds That Earth’s Climate is Approaching ‘Dangerous’ Point, May 30, 2007 by NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Which mentions the possible “disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet”.
• Antarctic Ice Sheet Is Melting Rapidly, March 3, 2006 article in the Washington Post.
• Melting glaciers race for Antarctic shores, a June 5, 2007 article in The Register/UK.
• Sea Level and Climate, by the U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, USGS Fact Sheet 002-00 January 2000. See “Potential Sea-Level Changes”.
• Huge sea level rises are coming – unless we act now, July 25, 2007 by James Hansen in New Scientist Environment.
• Professor Chris Rapley: Taking Stock on Climate Change, an interview in Science Poles - The scientific website of the International Polar Foundation.